Kelly method: Learn and know how to manage your bets

As you know very well, to make long-term profits from sports betting, you must follow a rigorous management of your budget. All professional bettors use a method to control their bets and impose limits on themselves. This allows them to never lose their entire bankroll and to earn money in the long term.

Moreover, there are many methods to calculate the best bet for a sporting event. In this article from the guide , we will present to you the advantages as well as the limits of the Kelly method, a strategy based on a very simple calculation. It's up to you to play!

What is the Kelly Method?

You may be wondering what the Kelly Method is? First of all, know that this is a mathematical formula that aims to help you find the ideal amount of a bet. Initially, this calculation was planned for lottery games as well as for investments in finance. In fact, the Kelly method should increase the growth rate of your balance over a long period of time.

This is the American mathematician, John Larry Kelly Jr. who has set up a calculation criterion allowing many people to win long-term gains. As the formula can only be applied to results that do not depend on each other, it remains a preferred method by online bettors.

Moreover, regarding sports betting, you can easily use the Kelly method to manage your bankroll. In any case, you will have to analyze the odds as well as the probabilities of winning your bet in order to bet the ideal amount.

How to calculate the ideal amount to bet?

Who says mathematics, says calculation to be performed. Indeed, to find the optimal amount of your bet, you will have to perform a small operation. Don't worry, it's very easy to make and doesn't take much time!

Remember confidence cues. If an online bookmaker offers you a odds of 3.50 for the victory of the Montreal Impact, know that he considers that the team has a 28.5% chance of winning the match. The calculation to be done: (1/3.50) x 100 = 28.5.

To apply Kelly's formula, you can use the bookmaker's confidence index, but also propose your own. For example, you think that the Montreal Impact has a 35% chance of winning the match.

• (Rating x Your confidence index in % - 1) / (Rating - 1) = Kelly's Formula.

• (3.50 x 35% - 1) / (3.50 – 1) = 9% to bet on the Impact of Montreal for this match.

Some tips for using the Kelly method

As you have just noticed, the Kelly method will be useful and effective, only if you make a good estimate of your confidence index. You will therefore have to analyze the sports meetings and carefully estimate each probability of winning your prognosis. Be careful, because if your confidence index is not accurate, the Kelly method could make you lose money.

In addition, the Kelly method sometimes offers you an ideal amount to bet very high. Do not rush and instead think about setting certain limits for yourself not to exceed. We strongly advise you never to bet more than 10% of your budget.